I was in southern Oregon for the past few days and came across a newspaper from October 9, 2008....a year ago. 

A headline on the front page of that paper announced "Dow drops 679 points" and in smaller type it notes how this was the first time the Dow Jones Industrial Average had dropped below 9000 since May of 2003.

That raises the question: Are we back to where we were six years ago?

The answer is probably both yes and no.

The Dow is up just over 34% from its low point in early March. It is rallying a bit faster than the March to December rally in 2003.

But these are different times. The decline in the stock market in 2003 was largely a stock market issue; the decline in 2008-09 reflects a widespread weakness in the economy.

That weakness both causes new needs and will make recovery much tougher throughout the economy.

In the nonprofit sector many funders have been spreading the word that the impact of the 2008 decline in asset values won't really be felt until 2010. Private foundation giving is usually tied to the past year's asset values. So giving in 2009 was predicated on asset values the first nine months of the year rather than the low values held at the end of the year. 

The current increase in stock market prices will reduce the severity of foundation giving declines; if the market had stayed at it's March 2009 low of 6447 many foundations would have seen nearly half their assets gone and a similar decline in giving. 

But the real impact of the current surge in the market will be seen in 2011 if asset values stay at current levels or increase.  And for many grant writers that may mean that the worst has passed. Since many organizations are already looking at projects for 2010 and beyond the outlook for grants for those projects will, we hope, keep improving.

One last note: It's not too late to register for the annual conference. There is a chance to see three great presentations that can help you in your work as well as the opportunity to network with others in the field.