While there is no clear consensus, there are many reasons to believe that the impacts of last October's dramatic drop in the stock market will affect foundation giving for the next five years. And to the extent that your organization relies upon foundation funding, you should keep that time frame in mind.

Why do I say five years? Because foundation giving cannot truly recover until assets recover. Even though many organizations, beginning with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, have dug deeper and made a commitment to increase giving in 2009, that trend cannot continue. Many organizations that are making such efforts target that increased giving to vital human services. Those efforts may help our communities get past the next year or so that will be most heavily impacted by job losses and the human needs that result from those job losses.

But few economic observers expect the stock market to bounce back very quickly. So this extraordinary effort will come at a cost: a further decline in assets. Even foundations who distribute just a little above the 5% minimum will likely have a net loss of assets in 2009 because assets won't gain enough to offset payouts.

Without some growth in assets it will be very difficult for foundations to match 2009 giving in 2010.

And while we don't know what the future holds, it seems unlikely that foundation giving can fully rebound in less than five years.

What does that mean for your organization? First, make sure you really understand your organization's business plan. Fee income, government support, and individual giving may bounce back much quicker than foundation and corporate giving. If you have more than one program, evaluate each program's income stream separately. Some may be healthy or may recover in a shorter time.

Second, if we are working with a five-year timeframe, then foundations are going to look at your organization's plans to deal with that time frame. Getting through to the end of this year isn't a good plan, because more than likely foundation giving won't be all that much better next year.

Third, as in past times that grant support has declined, funders focus more on preserving the impact or service than on preserving a particular organization. At times, those might be one and the same. But often they are different questions. For example, making more food available through food banks is one issue, saving a particular food bank is quite another.

Finally, act early. If looking at a five-year time frame tells you that certain program expansions may have to be pared back, then do it now so that you can keep your core programs as strong as possible. That is not an easy task, especially if it looks like there is enough money in the checking account this month or for the rest of this year to keep those expanded efforts going. But if a program has lost its funding base you can only support it out of reserves for so long before you compromise the entire organization.