I discovered audio books twenty-five years ago when I started working in Tacoma. My 45-minute commute from West Seattle was just enough time to listen to one side of an audio book cassette.

While I don't regret moving closer to work, my "reading" time dropped considerably. Now audio books are on cd, and I still recommend them to anyone who writes. Listening to the spoken word helps a writer understand the impact of words. Even when a reader reads silently, those words on the page make sounds in the reader's mind.

Also, books on cd allow me to hear many books I wouldn't have time to read. One such book is Guitar by Tim Brookes. In short, it's the history of the guitar. But it is also a great read for what it reveals about our country's music, culture, and race relations throughout the 20th century.

Brookes also mentions some facts about early radio that reminded me of a story I'd heard before and provides an interesting analogy to the times we face today.

Hard as it might be to believe, in the early days of radio it was illegal to broadcast records. The music had to be live, which was preferred, or a special recording made for radio. Radio became popular and common in the early 1920s. Records, and record players, had been well-established for over a decade. And the people who sold records saw the radio as competition, so they prohibited the playing of records on broadcasts.

This practice lasted for over twenty years. Then, in the 1950s, there was the payola scandal. Payola was the practice of paying a key person at the radio station, often the DJ, to play your company's records more than the records of other companies.

That is the very definition of a paradigm shift. The conventional wisdom of the record companies went from seeing radio as the enemy to seeing radio as an invaluable asset for promoting its product.

If we look back on 2009 a few years from now will we see that there was a dramatic shift of the same magnitude in the nonprofit sector? And if we are in the midst of that kind of change, what future should we be working towards?

When conventional wisdom changes, it changes overnight. But there are still signs you can see in advance. For example, there were many musicians who understood how radio promoted their careers. They played for free on radio broadcasts as a way to plug their local shows. And they were convinced that it was worth the effort.

But those same artists didn't get paid for records sales. In those days royalties generally were not paid. Only when record companies recognized that airplay would sell records did their attitude change.

What signs can we see that might affect the future conventional wisdom of the nonprofit sector? I don't have any answers, but I'll suggest a few ideas for you to think about, and to watch for.

One topic is capital fund raising. Even before last fall's economic downturn, and the subsequent moratorium on capital grants a few local funders, some funders had decided that they no longer wanted to fund capital grants. What does that mean for the funding of nonprofit buildings and major equipment?

Another topic is the change in the expectations of the nonprofit sector. Discussions among federal, state, and local governments has raised questions about what it means to be a nonprofit. The Under the Rainbow Day Care Center in Minnesota is one such case as are the questions that Congress has raised about the operations of nonprofit hospitals.

Finally, there has been a tremendous growth in the nonprofit sector since 1990. Starting this year, the IRS is beginning to ask even the smallest nonprofit (except for churches) to report annually that they are doing business. If an organization fails to file for three years, its nonprofit status will be withdrawn. While the desire to trim defunct groups from the IRS roles makes sense, how will this policy affect small, volunteer run organizations that may slip through the cracks?

Do you see other issues on the horizon? If you do, drop me a line at kenristine@hotmail.com